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Market Regime: Hot October CPI Keeps the Read RED Into Friday’s PPI
November 10, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: RED, risk-off posture. Monday’s relief rally is on hold. October CPI came in hot this morning, core inflation stuck at 0.3 percent for a third straight month, and spot volatility is back above 20 less than a day after closing under it. We stay defensive into Friday’s…
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Derivatives Lab: A Call Broken Wing That Wants XSP at $720
November 9, 2026 The Thesis This is a defined-risk downside bet based on the Market Regime flip to RED on November 6, detailed in Market Regime: A Hot Jobs Report, and the Read Flips Back to RED. The setup: Payrolls rose 165K against 65K expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, wages rose 0.4%, and a December…
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Technicals: SVXY, Deeply Negative Momentum, No Turn Yet
November 6, 2026 I use SVXY, an inverse VIX ETF, to track our systematic short-volatility harvesting signal, so when volatility spikes, SVXY falls, and Thursday it fell hard. SVXY closed at $54.17 on November 5, down $9.87, or 15.41 percent, on the day, from an open of $63.66, on volume of 7.8 million shares. That…
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Market Regime: A Hot Jobs Report, and the Read Flips Back to RED
November 6, 2026 Our regime read changes today: RED, risk-off posture. Yesterday we were at AMBER. Thursday brought the worst sell-off since April 2025, and this morning the volatility curve is more deeply inverted than it has been at any point in this log. Halt any new buying, protect principal, and move to defensive posture…
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Market Regime: A Clean Data Beat, but the Curve Still Pays Almost Nothing
November 5, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Wednesday’s relief rally held this morning after a clean beat on the 8:30 data, but the volatility curve is still almost flat at the front, so the market is paying almost nothing for that relief. Strict stops on existing credit spreads, trim speculative…
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Technicals: Weekly S&P 500, Still Bullish, With Building Caution
November 4, 2026 My technical analysis is consistent with the AMBER market regime signal. Still holding a positive view but with building caution. The primary market regime remains structurally bullish, characterized by a mature, multi-year uptrend from the late 2022 lows. While the prevailing trend is undeniably upward, the trend structure is exhibiting late-stage maturity…
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Market Regime: Relief Rally Eases the Read Back to AMBER
November 4, 2026 Our regime read changes today: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Yesterday we were at RED. This morning spot volatility fell back below 20, and the volatility curve moved from inverted to slightly upward sloping. That is an improvement, but it is not an all clear. The November to December step is almost flat,…
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Market Regime: Election Day Pushes the Read to RED
November 3, 2026 Our regime read changes today: RED, risk-off posture. Monday’s sell-off lifted spot volatility above 21, and the shape of the volatility curve got worse, not better. The November contract is still priced above the December contract, and the gap widened. With an election, a jobs report, and a major earnings week all…
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Market Regime: A Steadier Open, but the Curve Is Still Inverted
November 2, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Futures are steadying after Friday’s tech-led sell-off, helped mainly by a sharp fall in oil, but the shape of the volatility curve has not healed. The November to December step is still inverted, so near-term event risk is still priced above the next…
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Macro Data: Growth Held, Inflation Stuck, and Tech Led the Sell-off
October 31, 2026 The week’s economic data told a fairly clean story, and the market mostly ignored it. Growth held up, inflation stayed sticky, and the Fed held rates with a live December hike still on the table. What actually moved stocks this week was not the data at all. It was Thursday and Friday’s…
