Category: Market Regime
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Market Regime: An Inverted Front Curve, and a Tech-Led Sell-off
October 30, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed overnight is the reason for that read. This morning belongs to earnings, not to the data. Amazon and Intel revived the question of how much big tech is spending on artificial intelligence, Nasdaq futures are down more than 2 percent, and…
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Market Regime: Strong Growth, Sticky Inflation, and a Nearly Flat Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed overnight is the backdrop behind that read. The Fed held rates yesterday, and this morning brought a stronger growth print alongside inflation that is still not cooling. That combination keeps a December hike firmly in play, and it leaves the shape of the volatility…
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Market Regime: Fed Day, With a Nearly Flat Front Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Today is Fed day, and the market is waiting for the 2:00 PM decision before it reprices anything in earnest. Spot volatility looks calm enough on its own, but the shape of the curve is still the problem. The gap between the November and December contracts…
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Market Regime: The Curve Flipped Positive, But Barely
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed this morning is a small but real improvement in the shape of the curve. The November contract is back below the December contract, so the November to December gap is positive again for the first time in this recent run, at plus 0.53%. That…
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Market Regime: The Inversion Eased, But FOMC Week Still Owns the Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed since Friday is the degree, not the direction. The November contract still sits above the December contract, so the curve is still inverted at the front, but the gap narrowed sharply, from negative 1.27% on Friday to negative 0.26% this morning. The market is…
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Market Regime: The Front of the Curve Just Inverted
Thursday was a rotation, not a broad washout, but the curve underneath it just flipped. The November VIX contract is now priced above the December contract, an inversion that prices the near-term event cluster above everything behind it. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Thursday’s tape split in two. The S&P 500 fell…
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Market Regime: Risk-Off Meets a Flat Curve
The tape turned risk-off overnight and the fear gauge answered with a jump, but the curve underneath it is nearly flat. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Wednesday’s session was constructive, the S&P 500 closed up 0.36% at 7,740.42, the Nasdaq gained 1.1% to 26,703 and the Dow added 0.7% to 52,856. Premarket…
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Market Regime: November Takes the Front Seat
The fear gauge keeps cooling and the curve keeps refusing to pay for it. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Spot VIX sits at 17.15 this morning, its calmest level in weeks, and the October futures contract expired with the open, which hands the front of the curve to November. November futures sit…
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Market Regime: A Flat Curve Pays Nothing
Friday’s volatility spike keeps fading, but the curve still refuses to pay anyone for believing in the calm. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Spot VIX sits at 18.87 this morning, down from Friday’s 19.99 close and Monday’s 18.44 settle, so the fear gauge itself has cooled. The term structure is the problem.…
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Market Regime: A Bounce the Curve Doesn’t Believe
October 19, 2026 Friday’s 21% VIX spike was a rate-and-AI-capex scare, not a credit event. This morning the market is bouncing, tech is leading the relief rally, and VIX has cooled to around 18.6. But the volatility curve is telling a more cautious story than the futures: it’s flat to inverted, which means nobody is…