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Technicals: Weekly S&P 500, Still Bullish, With Building Caution
November 4, 2026 My technical analysis is consistent with the AMBER market regime signal. Still holding a positive view but with building caution. The primary market regime remains structurally bullish, characterized by a mature, multi-year uptrend from the late 2022 lows. While the prevailing trend is undeniably upward, the trend structure is exhibiting late-stage maturity…
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Market Regime: Relief Rally Eases the Read Back to AMBER
November 4, 2026 Our regime read changes today: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Yesterday we were at RED. This morning spot volatility fell back below 20, and the volatility curve moved from inverted to slightly upward sloping. That is an improvement, but it is not an all clear. The November to December step is almost flat,…
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Market Regime: Election Day Pushes the Read to RED
November 3, 2026 Our regime read changes today: RED, risk-off posture. Monday’s sell-off lifted spot volatility above 21, and the shape of the volatility curve got worse, not better. The November contract is still priced above the December contract, and the gap widened. With an election, a jobs report, and a major earnings week all…
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Market Regime: A Steadier Open, but the Curve Is Still Inverted
November 2, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Futures are steadying after Friday’s tech-led sell-off, helped mainly by a sharp fall in oil, but the shape of the volatility curve has not healed. The November to December step is still inverted, so near-term event risk is still priced above the next…
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Macro Data: Growth Held, Inflation Stuck, and Tech Led the Sell-off
October 31, 2026 The week’s economic data told a fairly clean story, and the market mostly ignored it. Growth held up, inflation stayed sticky, and the Fed held rates with a live December hike still on the table. What actually moved stocks this week was not the data at all. It was Thursday and Friday’s…
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Technicals: Price Holds Near the Top While Breadth Rolls Over
October 30, 2026 Maintain a cautious approach, as indicated by the Daily Market Regime report. The Technical Index indicator has been a reliable indicator over the past 10 plus years, and right now it is telling a cautious story. The indicator is the NYSE Technical Index, shown on StockCharts under the proprietary symbol !BINYTI. Its…
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Market Regime: An Inverted Front Curve, and a Tech-Led Sell-off
October 30, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed overnight is the reason for that read. This morning belongs to earnings, not to the data. Amazon and Intel revived the question of how much big tech is spending on artificial intelligence, Nasdaq futures are down more than 2 percent, and…
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Market Regime: Strong Growth, Sticky Inflation, and a Nearly Flat Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed overnight is the backdrop behind that read. The Fed held rates yesterday, and this morning brought a stronger growth print alongside inflation that is still not cooling. That combination keeps a December hike firmly in play, and it leaves the shape of the volatility…
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Market Regime: Fed Day, With a Nearly Flat Front Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Today is Fed day, and the market is waiting for the 2:00 PM decision before it reprices anything in earnest. Spot volatility looks calm enough on its own, but the shape of the curve is still the problem. The gap between the November and December contracts…
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Market Regime: The Curve Flipped Positive, But Barely
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed this morning is a small but real improvement in the shape of the curve. The November contract is back below the December contract, so the November to December gap is positive again for the first time in this recent run, at plus 0.53%. That…
