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Macro Data: Week Ended Nov 13, 2026
November 14, 2026 Inflation re-accelerated this week, and the December hike is now locked in at 100%. October CPI came in hot on Tuesday, October PPI came in a touch cooler on Friday, and neither print changed the main event, only the argument about the size of the hike. Stocks rallied anyway, their best week…
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Equity Intelligence: dLocal (DLO): The Margin Illusion and the Structural Mispricing
Equity Intelligence: dLocal (DLO): The Margin Illusion and the Structural Mispricing November 13, 2026 dLocal is a payments company that lets global merchants, mostly large software, ride-hailing, and e-commerce names, collect payments across more than 40 complex emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and Asia through one API, one platform, and one contract. It shields…
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Market Regime: Cooler PPI, but the 10-Year Above 5% Keeps Us AMBER
November 13, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. October PPI came in a touch cooler than expected, which took a little edge off the hot inflation story, but the year-over-year rate is still the hottest since 2022, the December hike is still fully priced, and the 10-year Treasury yield is holding…
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Market Regime: Nvidia Shock Tests the AMBER Read Ahead of Friday’s PPI
Market Regime: Nvidia Shock Tests the AMBER Read Ahead of Friday’s PPI November 12, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. The AI rebound is intact, but the AI trade itself has a leadership shock this morning, and the rate problem has not gone away. The next real test is Friday’s October…
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Market Regime: AI Rebound Pulls the Read to AMBER Ahead of Friday’s PPI
Market Regime: AI Rebound Pulls the Read to AMBER Ahead of Friday’s PPI November 11, 2026 Our regime read has changed: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Yesterday’s read was RED. The AI trade is bouncing back this morning after Tuesday’s inflation hit, and spot volatility is back under 20, but the curve has only just flipped…
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Market Regime: Hot October CPI Keeps the Read RED Into Friday’s PPI
November 10, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: RED, risk-off posture. Monday’s relief rally is on hold. October CPI came in hot this morning, core inflation stuck at 0.3 percent for a third straight month, and spot volatility is back above 20 less than a day after closing under it. We stay defensive into Friday’s…
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Derivatives Lab: A Call Broken Wing That Wants XSP at $720
November 9, 2026 The Thesis This is a defined-risk downside bet based on the Market Regime flip to RED on November 6, detailed in Market Regime: A Hot Jobs Report, and the Read Flips Back to RED. The setup: Payrolls rose 165K against 65K expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, wages rose 0.4%, and a December…
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Technicals: SVXY, Deeply Negative Momentum, No Turn Yet
November 6, 2026 I use SVXY, an inverse VIX ETF, to track our systematic short-volatility harvesting signal, so when volatility spikes, SVXY falls, and Thursday it fell hard. SVXY closed at $54.17 on November 5, down $9.87, or 15.41 percent, on the day, from an open of $63.66, on volume of 7.8 million shares. That…
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Market Regime: A Hot Jobs Report, and the Read Flips Back to RED
November 6, 2026 Our regime read changes today: RED, risk-off posture. Yesterday we were at AMBER. Thursday brought the worst sell-off since April 2025, and this morning the volatility curve is more deeply inverted than it has been at any point in this log. Halt any new buying, protect principal, and move to defensive posture…
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Market Regime: A Clean Data Beat, but the Curve Still Pays Almost Nothing
November 5, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Wednesday’s relief rally held this morning after a clean beat on the 8:30 data, but the volatility curve is still almost flat at the front, so the market is paying almost nothing for that relief. Strict stops on existing credit spreads, trim speculative…
