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Technicals: Breadth Is Quietly Firming Under a Rising VIX
Volatility is doing what volatility is supposed to do in a risk-off tape. The VIX jumped about 12 percent this morning to 18.74 and is pressing toward the upper end of the range it has held since September, and the short-volatility side of the market tells the same story from the other direction. On its…
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Market Regime: November Takes the Front Seat
The fear gauge keeps cooling and the curve keeps refusing to pay for it. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Spot VIX sits at 17.15 this morning, its calmest level in weeks, and the October futures contract expired with the open, which hands the front of the curve to November. November futures sit…
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Macro Data: Housing Whiffs, December Blinks
Housing starts came in at 1.221 million against a 1.30 million consensus, a 5.2% monthly drop, with the prior month revised down on top of it. At 7.5% mortgage rates, construction is finally bending. This is the first real soft-demand print of the month, and it lands against a run of inflation data that has…
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Technicals: Market Breadth Is Trying to Stabilize
The advance-decline line counts the market’s foot soldiers. Indexes can be carried for a while by a handful of big names, but breadth tells us whether the average stock is actually participating. On a weekly chart, the NYSE advance-decline line has been weak, and this week it is doing something worth watching: it may be…
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Market Regime: A Flat Curve Pays Nothing
Friday’s volatility spike keeps fading, but the curve still refuses to pay anyone for believing in the calm. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Spot VIX sits at 18.87 this morning, down from Friday’s 19.99 close and Monday’s 18.44 settle, so the fear gauge itself has cooled. The term structure is the problem.…
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Technicals: The Indicator Says Not Yet
October 19, 2026 This is the first in a series of customized StockCharts setups. Today’s chart is the S&P 500 with one of my favorite timing tools: a momentum indicator (middle panel) with a moving average overlay. The rule is simple. When the indicator drops below the moving average overlay, the market is going down.…
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Market Regime: A Bounce the Curve Doesn’t Believe
October 19, 2026 Friday’s 21% VIX spike was a rate-and-AI-capex scare, not a credit event. This morning the market is bouncing, tech is leading the relief rally, and VIX has cooled to around 18.6. But the volatility curve is telling a more cautious story than the futures: it’s flat to inverted, which means nobody is…
