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Technicals: Price Holds Near the Top While Breadth Rolls Over
October 30, 2026 Maintain a cautious approach, as indicated by the Daily Market Regime report. The Technical Index indicator has been a reliable indicator over the past 10 plus years, and right now it is telling a cautious story. The indicator is the NYSE Technical Index, shown on StockCharts under the proprietary symbol !BINYTI. Its…
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Market Regime: An Inverted Front Curve, and a Tech-Led Sell-off
October 30, 2026 Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed overnight is the reason for that read. This morning belongs to earnings, not to the data. Amazon and Intel revived the question of how much big tech is spending on artificial intelligence, Nasdaq futures are down more than 2 percent, and…
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Market Regime: Strong Growth, Sticky Inflation, and a Nearly Flat Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed overnight is the backdrop behind that read. The Fed held rates yesterday, and this morning brought a stronger growth print alongside inflation that is still not cooling. That combination keeps a December hike firmly in play, and it leaves the shape of the volatility…
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Market Regime: Fed Day, With a Nearly Flat Front Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. Today is Fed day, and the market is waiting for the 2:00 PM decision before it reprices anything in earnest. Spot volatility looks calm enough on its own, but the shape of the curve is still the problem. The gap between the November and December contracts…
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Market Regime: The Curve Flipped Positive, But Barely
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed this morning is a small but real improvement in the shape of the curve. The November contract is back below the December contract, so the November to December gap is positive again for the first time in this recent run, at plus 0.53%. That…
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Market Regime: The Inversion Eased, But FOMC Week Still Owns the Curve
Our regime read is unchanged: AMBER, continue defensive posture. What changed since Friday is the degree, not the direction. The November contract still sits above the December contract, so the curve is still inverted at the front, but the gap narrowed sharply, from negative 1.27% on Friday to negative 0.26% this morning. The market is…
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Market Regime: The Front of the Curve Just Inverted
Thursday was a rotation, not a broad washout, but the curve underneath it just flipped. The November VIX contract is now priced above the December contract, an inversion that prices the near-term event cluster above everything behind it. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Thursday’s tape split in two. The S&P 500 fell…
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Derivatives Lab: A Put Ratio That Wants CRS at $273
This morning we published our Equity Intelligence spotlight on Carpenter Technology (CRS) and said the cleaner trade after a 20 percent earnings-day flush was outright accumulation of the shares. The thesis has not changed. The timing of our own buying has: we want the stock, but we want it lower, and today we opened a…
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Equity Intelligence: Carpenter Technology (CRS)
October 22, 2026 Carpenter Technology (NYSE: CRS) reported fiscal first-quarter results this morning, and the market’s verdict was swift: the stock fell about 20 percent to $294.64. Our verdict, after working through the print and the earnings call, is the opposite. The quarter reaffirms the thesis we laid out in our research, and on net…
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Market Regime: Risk-Off Meets a Flat Curve
The tape turned risk-off overnight and the fear gauge answered with a jump, but the curve underneath it is nearly flat. Our regime read stays AMBER, continue defensive posture. Wednesday’s session was constructive, the S&P 500 closed up 0.36% at 7,740.42, the Nasdaq gained 1.1% to 26,703 and the Dow added 0.7% to 52,856. Premarket…
